Brexit Pie - Recipe For Disaster.

Why did Sterling plummet following Brexit?

Perhaps it’s simply because the markets themselves and the fiscal powerhouses that quietly drive them, could deduce the situation into which Little Britain had just placed itself and thus adjusted accordingly.

Now the combined UK media that operated such a fervent anti-EU campaign finds itself in a situation which, in simple terms, means they daren’t explain the ramifications to its readership. Ditto the Westminster Government, of whatever shade.

Effectively this is what happened on June 23^rd 2016.

While there are a lot more subtle flavours to the Brexit Pie, here are some of the main, basic ingredients listed on the tin. Some flavours were carefully hidden by ‘Brexiters’ before the vote. Somewhat paradoxically, neither could ‘Remainers’ reveal these rather toxic elements. It might well also explain why the ‘Remain’ camp ran such a god awful campaign – they’d no choice.

Ingredients:

1.    Over the last half century or so, Westminster’s policies have effectively taken a powerhouse of a manufacturing nation where 48% of its output and effectively its folk, were tied to manufacturing or the production of goods.

2.    By 2014 the Office for National Statistics(ONS) now has only 8% of the population and 12% of output tied to the  manufacturing sector. This arena has been effectively reduced by 75% under successive Westminster governments. In quite simplistic terms, the real wealth and lifeblood of the country has effectively been reduced by a like amount.

3.    Now look at the effect it’s had on historical exchange rates. In 1948, Sterling valued at over $4. Today, it is around $1.30 and tracking down. Overall, that loss of manufacturing capacity has tracked our loss of currency value quite nicely.

4.    Effectively the UK now has about one person in 12 in the manufacturing sector. In its bluntest terms this little Union is asking one person to carry the load of eleven more. That’s the real fundamental reason for Austerity.

5.    Between governmental economic and fiscal mismanagement at the UK level Westminster is rapidly leading us to a debt load which the UK is rather rapidly becoming unable to support.

6.    The markets are aware that the UK effectively just signed away it’s EU rebate and stimulus packages. Consequently, that’s billion’s a year added to the red ink on that national ledger, and not over decades.

7.    The markets also know that the UK just resigned from that fabled ‘seat at the top table’ in the worlds’ most significant trading block. Now Little Britain has no say in the most significant world around it. We will rely on the goodwill of our neighbours, goodwill we ourselves have strained to the breaking point.

8.    In order to retain access to the single market, the City of London knows that the British Nations will need to maintain somewhere close their current contribution level to the EU.

Method:

Deduct the losses and it’s shaping up to be a rather massive fiscal hole.

Worldwide finance is aware that these Islands will have to accept EU directives and EU laws which the EU insists upon, or we will lose or end up with restricted access to that single market.  

The United Kingdom voted for immigration control; The EU will not allow it, Little Britain must accept that, or lose free access to the single market.

Losing access to Europe’s single market is now effectively taking a basket case economy and flushing.

The EU holds all the aces, its member states the remaining cards, while the UK has effectively folded, walking away from the table.

Now let the negotiations begin.

They Gied Us Lemons.

FFA, Fiscal Autonomy, Federalism, call it what you will.

It started out that we Scot’s would be about a couple of billion a year in the hole. Westminster suddenly realized that was less than what we had to pay as a part of UK debt, heck, we’re getting up there on being charged our share of London’s Olympics, Cross-rail (they didn’t offer a hand out on Edinburgh’s tram’s, did they?), being charged a pro-rata for London’s new sewer system, and god alone knows what we’ll have to pay if the World Cup comes back to England?

It’s fine, I hear, we got the Commonwealth Games, look at the subsidies there? As in what subsidies?

Then of course, there are the massive energy penalties that all Scots pay.

The amount Scotland would need subsidised began to escalate.

Five billion, seven, in the Sunday Express, it was ten billion – any advances?

Twaddle!

You see, the Unionists quite literally scared many elderly into a no vote, they convinced others through biased propaganda, and finally there was the “VOW”. Well, not so much a VOW, but more ‘THE CON’; however although that’s largely now irrelevant, what isn’t, is that Scots voted to stay. Scots voted to be part of this Union.

What the Unionists aren’t revealing is that FFA might in the worst case be hell in a hand-basket for Scotland, but being in the Union, Westminster would still be responsible for it.

The interesting thing is that these ‘new massive deficits’ aren’t what they seem. They’re all predicated on the status quo.

So, effectively, London and her media bubble are saying ‘you can’t have it, because you can’t handle it’ while saying simultaneously ‘that debt, by the way, you’ve already got it, and we’re already covering it’

You see, the biggest part of that referendum business last year, was the ‘better together’ and ‘pooled resources’ bit.

When you look at it deeply, you quickly come to understand that what it’s all about is Westminster’s awareness that they’ve truly screwed things up; that and their unwillingness to be seen to have done so.

Let’s look at the scenarios.

Scenario one is FFA for Scots. We decide to do things differently, it’s successful, and egg gets thrown all over faces in the Palace in London.

Scenario two is we blow it with knobs on. Scenario two will not happen overnight, economies just don’t change that fast, but if we did, Westminster steps in, removes FFA and slaps Scots for being idiots, perhaps by 2% more on income tax until we pay for ‘our folly’ – they could even propose that going in – it’s a bet I’d take.

Regardless, that extra levy couldn’t really be assessed, because Scot’s are only 10% of the UK, and the UK umbrella debt wouldn’t change by much. Even if we awarded all our underprivileged double benefits, and doubled the size of the NHS, it might only add 5% more to the UK debt burden. For me, that 5% isn’t a reason to say ‘NO’ FFA.

Imagine what Westminster would gain if FFA was achieved unfettered and implemented, without requiring the Governor General’s approval. Now imagine it failing, and that little penalty being imposed for a handful of years.

Effectively you’d do what George Robertson in fact claimed of Devolution, you’d kill the demands for ‘more’ stone dead, at least you’d do so in enough Scot’s eyes to stop the Nationalists movement in its tracks.

What will happen if FFA is an unmitigated success? You will end up with a thriving economy just humming along; an economy that benefits everyone, Scots and the Union alike.

If it’s just little different, then it’ll not cost either party more, if it doesn’t actually save money. Government is returned closer to the people, never a bad thing, and responsibility returns to a more local level.

Effectively, the only reason then for Westminster not following FFA is because they believe it will succeed. And they’re scared of that, because in that success they’ll see a demand for more powers and a lessening of their own prestige and influence.

Why should they believe that? They’ve every reason in the world. Just look at Holyrood, the ‘wee pretendy parliament’, which was just called an executive but is now in the eyes of the world an actual ‘Parliament’, with a respected ‘First Minister’.

We demonstrated with Holyrood that although they ‘gied us lemons, we made lemonade’. Westminster and her backers are truly terrified to see what we might achieve with FFA.

The Big Currency Bash.

Well, it's been hot news since Gideon laid his cards flatly and squarely on the table. The Scots and their Nation are second-class citizens of Planet Earth when it comes to currency sharing. And while I don't normally re-blog items, I saw this post pertaining to the stramash on "who can do what with a pound" while on Facebook today, and thought it was worth the reposting. 

Thanks to Mairie NicIllemhoire and Ken Potter for all the information:

"I'm not in favour of the Euro as our currency post-indy, but nonetheless, I found it very interesting to discover that there are several non-EU members who use the Euro as their currency, namely: Andorra, Kosovo, Monaco, Montenegro, San Marino, and Vatican City.

With regards to sterling, the current list of official users (plus secondary currencies, in brackets) are:

United Kingdom,
British Antarctic Territory,
Falkland Islands (alongside Falkland Islands pound),
Gibraltar (alongside Gibraltar pound),
Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha (Tristan da Cunha; alongside Saint Helena pound in Saint Helena and Ascension),
South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands (alongside Falkland Islands pound),
British Indian Ocean Territory (de jure, US Dollar used de facto),
Guernsey (local issue: Guernsey pound),
Isle of Man (local issue: Manx pound),
Jersey (local issue: Jersey pound).

Apart from these OFFICIAL users of the pound sterling, there are the following places using sterling unofficially:

Uganda,
Zimbabwe,
Zambia,
Sierra Leone,
Tanzania,
Rwanda,
Malawi,
Botswana,
plus the Pakistani city of Mirpur in Kashmir.

Historically.
After becoming independent, Ireland continued to use the Saorstát pound (Irish Punt), which remained pegged with sterling until she joined the European Monetary System in 1978, whilst the UK remained out. Other areas of the, now defunct, Empire have also used sterling in the past - the gold sovereign was legal tender in Canada despite the use of the Canadian dollar.

Several colonies and dominions adopted the pound as their own currency. These included Australia, Barbados, British West Africa, Cyprus, Fiji, the Irish Free State, Jamaica, New Zealand, South Africa and Southern Rhodesia. Some of these retained parity with sterling throughout their existence (e.g. the South African pound), whilst others deviated from parity after the end of the gold standard (e.g. the Australian pound).

At this point, I'm thinking that someone needs to put this to Better Together, and ask 2 salient questions: 

1) Just exactly WHAT makes Scotland different from any and all of these other places?

 
2) Name one place that has ever been refused the use of sterling. Just one!"

It will be interesting to hear if they've got an answer to either of those questions. 

As we approach the referendum, the output of scaremongering dross from the Unionist side is building to a torrent . But just how much more will the people in Scotland take and how much of it is now being seen for what it truly is - utter nonsense? 
I get the feeling that Westminster forgets even the humble Scot has access to the internet where any amount of information is available and these pronouncements can be checked and double-checked and seen for the misinformation they are.

Meanwhile, on the rest of the planet, the thought of an independent Scotland with a Scottish Pound appears to be perfectly acceptable. For instance, this little article - Hong Kong Markets favour a Scottish Pound - published last year on April 28th shows the money markets of the East giving a more favourable rate to the Scottish Pound than Sterling. It looks as if foreign markets think a Scottish Pound would be a safer bet than rUK Pound. 

I shall await the next development, scare story, bullsh*t with baited breath. I'm sure, just like buses, several will turn up at the same time.